"Bifurcation" in Sustainable Futures
"Bifurcation" in Sustainable Futures
A physicist’s call to alter design parameters for radical change.
Introduction by Marzia Aricò
Today’s piece is a guest column by Toti Di Dio, co-founder of the social innovation agency PUSH and Professor of Design at the University of Palermo. In the spring of 2024, Toti acted as scientific director of the “Communities' Sustainable Experiences - Urban Thinkers Campus” Conference hosted in the Madonie Region in Sicily. In that context, he co-hosted an interview with Professor Butera, a physicist and expert on sustainability in urban and building contexts in developing countries, with a special focus on those with tropical climates. In today’s blog, he shares the summary of that conversation and his own reflections.
This article is a revised excerpt from the book “Communities’ Sustainable Experiences.” Obtain the book or access the open-access PDF.
Bifurcation in Sustainable Futures
At the recent "Communities' Sustainable Experiences - Urban Thinkers Campus" conference, a thought-provoking discussion took place between Emeritus Professor Federico Maria Butera and Salvina Elisa Cutuli. The conversation revolved around Butera’s latest book, Sun, Wind, and Water (Manifestolibri, 2023), and his compelling vision for a transformative approach to sustainability.
Rethinking Renewable Energy
Butera’s book challenges the prevailing idea that the transition to renewable energy is merely about replacing fossil fuels with cleaner alternatives. Instead, he calls for a fundamental rethink of our economic and cultural frameworks, aligning them with the principles of a circular economy, which the biosphere has perfected over billions of years. According to Butera, the current global situation demands not just gradual transitions but a profound "bifurcation" in our approach to sustainable development.
In mathematical terms, a bifurcation occurs when a small change in a system's parameters leads to a sudden and significant shift in its behaviour. Butera applies this concept to sustainability, arguing that incremental changes are inadequate. Instead, we need to focus on key “bifurcation points” where radical shifts can lead to substantial improvements in our systems.
"Incremental changes are inadequate. We need to address critical bifurcation points where radical shifts can create substantial improvements."
Addressing Rural Challenges
The discussion also touched on rural areas such as the Madonie region, located on the northern coast of Sicily, which faces challenges like depopulation and limited services. Butera advocates for integrating sustainable practices to revitalise these regions. He proposes a strategy that combines sustainable agriculture with innovative waste management techniques, such as biodigesters, to create a beneficial synergy between urban and rural environments. "Introducing biodigesters in wastewater treatment can transform organic waste into biogas, a clean energy source, and compost, which can replace chemical fertilizers," he says. This approach not only promotes local production and consumption but also reduces environmental impact and strengthens the connection between producers and consumers.
Local and Youth Engagement
Butera stresses the crucial role of local authorities in implementing policies that support local production, repairability, and reuse. He highlights the importance of shifting consumption patterns towards sustainability. Furthermore, Butera sees young people as central to driving environmental change. He encourages them to become well-informed, critically assess media content, and actively participate in their communities to foster sustainable progress. "It is crucial for young people to develop a critical consciousness regarding environmental and political issues," Butera advises. He urges them to "take to the streets, join others in demanding change, and adopt sustainable daily behaviours."
The Call to Action
Butera’s message is clear: the world is at a crossroads, and designers and planners must choose between change by design or change by disaster. This concept resonates with Terry Irwin's "transition design" framework, which advocates for systemic, transformative change rather than superficial adjustments.
According to Butera, designers should focus on identifying and influencing critical bifurcation points within societal systems. By doing so, they can drive meaningful changes that steer us away from potential disasters and towards a sustainable future. This approach challenges designers to rethink their roles, using their influence to create profound structural changes across various design scales—from products and services to policies.
A Path Forward
The interview, conducted by Salvina Elisa Cutuli and supported by myself as the conference’s scientific director, was presented to attendees on 22nd September 2023. It serves as a vital reminder of the urgent need for proactive, thoughtful design.
The discussion highlights the potential for collective efforts to achieve a sustainable and equitable world. Butera’s emphasis on "bifurcation" invites designers to explore and leverage critical points in societal systems, paving the way for radical transformations and guiding our global community towards a more sustainable future.
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